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Projections Show Public School Enrollment May End 13-Year Decline

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Date: 
Thursday, March 3, 2011

After thirteen years of declining enrollment, the number of students attending public schools in Iowa is expected to see some modest gains over the next five years, according to projections released by the Iowa Department of Education. The projections are used to forecast district changes in enrollment as well as funding for public schools.

“As Iowa’s population goes, so goes our school enrollment, which is reflected in the projected size and location of the increased number of students we predict seeing in our public schools over the next several years,” said Jason Glass, director of the Iowa Department of Education. “It is a positive sign that we anticipate seeing a modest turn-around in our enrollment figures and that the state’s public school district enrollment is projected to see small but sustained growth.”

The projected increase in public school enrollment mirrors the 2010 Census data, which shows a slight increase in Iowa’s population. The Department of Education is projecting a similar increase in the number of students attending the state’s public schools over the next five years:

  • 2010-11 Enrollment: 473,493
  • 2011-12 Projection: 474,520
  • 2015-16 Projection: 484,904

Projections for the 2011-12 school year show a 0.2 percent increase in the number of students in Iowa public schools. By the 2015-16 school year, the projection is for a 2.4 percent increase, or approximately 11,400 students, above the current school year.

At the same time, the one year projections show that a majority of Iowa school districts – 62% - still have declining enrollment and in five years 58% of school districts will continue to have declining enrollment. There are currently 359 districts in Iowa.

The following charts lists the ten school districts that are projected to see the largest increase in the number of students, and the ten districts with the largest percentage increase in its enrollment.

Top 10 Districts – Five Year Student Increase


District

2010-11 Enrollment

2015-16 Projection

Increase

Waukee

6,680

9,934

3,254

Ankeny

8,652

10,148

1,496

Des Moines

30,975

32,314

1,339

Iowa City

12,011

12,886

875

Johnston

6,094

6,964

870

Davenport

16,183

17,031

848

Linn-Mar

6,644

7,392

748

Southeast Polk

6,085

6,769

685

Waterloo

10,622

11,235

613

College

4,382

4,973

591

Top 10 Districts – Five Year Percentage Increase


District

2010-11 Enrollment

2015-16 Projection

Increase

Waukee

6,680

9,934

48.7%

Woodward-Granger

823

1,118

35.8%

Perry

1,833

2,355

28.5%

Dallas Center-Grimes

1,947

2,432

24.9%

Clear Creek Amana

1,565

1,946

24.3%

Adel DeSoto Minburn

1,408

1,751

24.3%

Albert City-Truesdale

210

258

23.0%

Ankeny

8,652

10,148

17.3%

West Lyon

783

915

16.9%

Schleswig

308

359

16.7%

In addition, of the eight school districts that are currently that largest in Iowa, and which form the Urban Education Network, seven are expected to see increases in their enrollment over the next five years:

Iowa’s Eight Largest Districts - 1 Year and 5 Year Projections


District

2010-11 Enrollment

2011-12 Projection

One Year Change

2015-16 Projection

Five Year Change

Cedar Rapids

16,810

16,690

-0.7%

16,545

-1.6%

Council Bluffs

9,125

9,094

-0.3%

9,158

0.4%

Davenport

16,183

16,586

2.5%

17,037

5.2%

Des Moines

30,975

31,101

0.4%

32,314

4.3%

Dubuque

10,517

10,579

0.6%

10,562

0.4%

Iowa City

12,011

12,143

1.1%

12,886

7.3%

Sioux City

13,823

13,915

0.7%

14,226

2.9%

Waterloo

10,622

10,859

2.2%

11,235

5.8%

2010-11 Certified Enrollment and Projections from 2011-12 to 2015-16

Printed from the Iowa Department of Education website on April 20, 2014 at 9:47pm.